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Research Article SOCIAL SCIENCES
Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars

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21 Feb 2018: Vol. 4, no. 2, eaao3580 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao3580
Aaron Clauset
Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, USA. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.

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Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from statistical fluctuations in the statistics of war. These models indicate that both the long peace and the period of great violence that preceded it are not statistically uncommon patterns in realistic but stationary conflict time series. This fact does not detract from the importance of the long peace or the proposed mechanisms that explain it. However, the models indicate that the postwar pattern of peace would need to endure at least another 100 to 140 years to become a statistically significant trend. This fact places an implicit upper bound on the magnitude of any change in the true likelihood of a large war after the end of the Second World War. The historical patterns of war thus seem to imply that the long peace may be substantially more fragile than proponents believe, despite recent efforts to identify mechanisms that reduce the likelihood of interstate wars.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

Science Advances

Vol 4, No. 202 February 2018

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Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars

By Aaron Clauset

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Conceptualization is a method of expanding man’s consciousness by reducing the number of its content’s units—a systematic means to an unlimited integration of cognitive data.

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It is crucially important to grasp the fact that a concept is an “open-end” classification which includes the yet-to-be-discovered characteristics of a given group of existents. All of man’s knowledge rests on that fact.

“The Cognitive Role of Concepts,” , 66

Concepts and, therefore, language are a tool of cognition— of communication, as is usually assumed. Communication is merely the consequence, not the cause nor the primary purpose of concept-formation—a crucial consequence, of invaluable importance to men, but still only a consequence. ; the necessary precondition of communication is that one have something to communicate ....

The primary purpose of concepts and of language is to provide man with a system of cognitive classification and organization, which enables him to acquire knowledge on an unlimited scale; this means: to keep order in man’s mind and enable him to think.

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Abstract ideas are conceptual integrations which subsume an incalculable number of concretes—and ... without abstract ideas you would not be able to deal with concrete, particular, real-life problems. You would be in the position of a newborn infant, to whom every object is a unique, unprecedented phenomenon. The difference between his mental state and yours lies in the number of conceptual integrations your mind has performed.

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Conceptual awareness is the only type of awareness capable of integrating past, present and future. Sensations are merely an awareness of the present and cannot be retained beyond the immediate moment; percepts are retained and, through automatic memory, provide a certain rudimentary link to the past, but cannot project the future. It is only conceptual awareness that can grasp and hold the total of its experience—extrospectively, the continuity of existence; introspectively, the continuity of consciousness—and thus enable its possessor to project his course long-range.

“Axiomatic Concepts,” , 57

There are many special or “cross-filed” chains of abstractions (of interconnected concepts) in man’s mind. Cognitive abstractions are the fundamental chain, on which all the others depend. Such chains are mental integrations, serving a special purpose and formed accordingly by a special criterion.

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Article type: Research Article

Authors: Ferreira, Anderson A | Gonçalves, Marcos André | Laender, Alberto H F

Affiliations: Departamento de Computação, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Campus Universitário Morro do Cruzeiro, 35400-000 - Ouro Preto - Brazil, Email: | Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-010 - Belo Horizonte - Brazil. Email: | Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-010 - Belo Horizonte - Brazil. Email:

Abstract: Name ambiguity in the context of bibliographic citation records is a hard problem that affects the quality of services and content in Digital Libraries (DL) and similar systems. The challenges of dealing with author name ambiguity have led to a myriad of disambiguation methods. This article present s three author name disambiguation methods, namely HHC, SAND, and INDi, and have presented some experimental results that show their effectiveness when compared to other methods proposed in the literature. HHC is a heuristic-based hierarchical clustering method that successively fuses clusters of citation records with similar author names based on a real-world heuristic applied to their citation attributes (e.g., coauthor names, work title, and publication venue title). SAND is a three-step self-training method for author name disambiguation that requires no manual labelling and no parameterization. It is particularly suitable for situations in which only the most basic citation information is available. INDi is an unsupervized incremental method that aims to identify the correct authors of new citation records as they are inserted in a DL, thus avoiding the drawback of getting it duplicated every time it is updated. These three methods have a common characteristic that they do not require any training and use only the most basic information available in a citation record (i.e., author names, work, and venue titles), thus making them more suitable for the name disambiguation task. Other methods generally require either a training phase to learn a disambiguation model or additional information to help the disambiguation process.

Keywords: Author name ambiguity, Bibliographic repository, Bibliographic citation, Automatic name disambiguation

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